Sunday/Monday winter storm: timeline and what to expect

This upcoming winter storm arriving late Sunday evening will bring us our first significant winter weather in many years, since at least 2020 if not 2019. Snow will begin in the Richmond area sometime around midnight (flurries may start between 9pm and 11pm) and pick up in intensity in the wee early morning hours. Temperatures will stay below freezing for the duration of this event from Ashland north to D.C. and that’s where the highest accumulations will be, generally on the order of 6-10” with isolated spots reaching close to a foot (closer to D.C.). We’re looking at a moderate snow around Richmond on the order of 3-5” with the possibility of some sleet and/or freezing rain mixing in or taking over as temperatures creep to just above freezing sometime between 8 and 10am Monday morning. Significant ice is likely west of here, out towards Lynchburg, Roanoke, but possibly further east to areas like Farmville and Amelia Courthouse. Precipitation will start to taper off in the afternoon on Monday, and temperatures will drop back below freezing Monday night, into the 20s and teens, and again the rest of the week, with daily highs only in the mid 30s. So roads will be slick regardless of snow amounts.

I do want to emphasize that there is still room and possibility for these numbers to increase a little. These storms are always tricky because you’re looking at multiple layers of the atmosphere and a change of just a couple of degrees at different levels completely changes the equation. There’s a sharp dropoff in snow totals between Ashland and Petersburg and that’s the area of highest uncertainty.

But I feel that what I layed out above is a good baseline for what to expect.